Will CSU football reach the upper or lower end of the team’s winning total in 2024?

What’s in store for the Colorado State football team in 2024?

Will the Rams finally play a bowl game for the first time since 2017? Or will it be another setback of a season?

The early betting lines suggest it will be a solid season for the Rams, with postseason play likely.

Both Action network and FanDuel have put CSU’s overall over/under win line for 2024 at 6.5.

Here’s a pro-con argument for why the Rams will reach the upper or lower limit at that point:

Why CSU football won’t meet 6.5 wins

There’s a bit of a “believe it when I see it” vibe among fans right now, and that’s understandable after six straight losing seasons. The Rams nearly broke through last season, but finished 5-7 after a 1-3 lead in games decided the final possession.

The 2024 roster doesn’t have much talent, which was crucial in the 2023 season. The defense, which allowed nearly 30 points per game, lost some of its best players to the NFL in defensive end Mohamed Kamara and cornerback Chigozie Anusiem. Freshman starting cornerback TJ Crandall also transferred (to West Virginia).

CSU allowed way too many big plays last season, and there is a lot of youth on defense and question marks at cornerback. If the defense falters again, it’s hard to see a path to the other side.

The Rams’ offense made some strides a year ago, but turned the ball over far too often. CSU threw 18 interceptions (16 by Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi) and was boom-or-bust with big plays or quick drives that ended in turnovers or punts. They also helped put the defense in bad spots.

CSU has lost more than 2,000 receiving yards (of 3,678 total) from last season, highlighted by the departures of tight end Dallin Holker (767 yards) to the NFL and receivers Justus Ross-Simmons (724 yards) and Louis Brown ( 481 yards). ) to transfers. These three also accounted for 14 total touchdown receptions. That’s a lot of productivity to replace.

More: Two Colorado State football players sign with teams after NFL draft

The Rams will need efficiency on offense in 2024 and could face hurdles with this departure and Fowler-Nicolosi learning.

All the talent lost on both sides of the ball will be difficult to overcome for a team that was already fighting on the slimmest of margins.

The September 14 home game against rival Colorado will be emotionally charged and a loss there could have negative, lasting consequences for the season. It’s a tough road schedule, so any setback at home quickly reduces the margin of error in reaching the total.

And hey, with a line of 6.5, CSU could fall just under and still return to bowl eligibility with a 6-6 record.

Why CSU football will surpass 6.5 wins

CSU was there a year ago. Many key players have gone through that experience and will have learned from it. In Year 3 under Jay Norvell, the Rams will have tightened the scheme and refined the edges.

Yes, the defense has some young players playing key roles, but they are talented young players. This staff has been recruiting at or near the top of the Mountain West rankings for three years and now they are ready to step into their role.

Nuer Gatkuoth (defensive end) and Buom Jock (linebacker) have star potential. Isaiah Essissima could flourish at corner if youngsters like Dylan Phelps and Jaylen Gardner show why CSU was excited to recruit them. Young doesn’t necessarily mean you’re not ready to compete. “If you’re good enough, you’re old enough,” goes the old saying.

Additionally, some key veterans like Jack Howell, Henry Blackburn, Cam Bariteau and Chase Wilson still form the core of a defense that will be hungry to prove itself. The defense has learned from last season and will make significant progress.

Offensively, Fowler-Nicolosi brought an explosiveness to the offense that hasn’t been seen in years. His 3,460 yards were the fourth most in a season in CSU history and by far the most as a freshman. A full offseason of practice in the spring and fall will help mop up some of the turnover.

And sure, CSU lost some offensive weapons, but gave back the most important one in Tory Horton. He had 1,136 receiving yards last season (seventh in CSU history) and will likely leave in just three seasons as one of the most productive receivers in school history.

The Rams have experience (Dylan Goffney, Donovan Ollie) on the scene, plus intriguing youngsters in Armani Winfield (Baylor transfer), Caleb Goodie and Jamari Person, among others.

CSU also has a stable of talented running backs and a deep offensive line, both of which will help the offensive control games.

Don’t forget CSU’s special teams, with good, consistent players at kicker and punter and one of the best returners in the country in Horton. Hidden yardage on special teams can make for close games in CSU’s favor.

The Rams play seven home games and they are all winnable. Additionally, six CSU opponents are under first-year head coaches. Dominate at home and steal 1-3 road wins and the Rams will jump over that line quickly.

2024 Colorado State Football Schedule

August 31: in Texas
September 7: vs. Northern Colorado at Canvas Stadium (Ag Day)
September 14: vs. Colorado at Canvas Stadium (green)
September 21: Vs. UTEP at Canvas Stadium (“State Pride” Day)
September 28: Goodbye
October 5: at Oregon State
October 12: vs. San Jose State at Canvas Stadium
October 19: Joined the Air Force
October 26: vs. New Mexico at Canvas Stadium (homecoming)
November 2: in Nevada
November 9: Goodbye
November 16: Vs. Wyoming at Canvas Stadium
Nov. 23: At Fresno State
November 30: Vs. Utah State at Canvas Stadium (senior day)

Follow sports reporter Kevin Lytle X and Instagram @Kevin_Lytle.