Donald Trump falsely tells his supporters that he won Minnesota in 2020

Donald Trump falsely claimed Friday that he had won the 2020 presidential election in Minnesota and said he would win this year in the state that has not voted for a Republican presidential candidate in more than 50 years.

Speaking before the Republican Party’s annual Lincoln-Reagan Dinner in St. Paul, Trump repeated the baseless claim that the last presidential election, which he lost to Joe Biden, a Democrat, was tainted by widespread fraud.

“I know we (Minnesota) won in 2020,” Trump said to applause. ‘We have to be careful. We have to keep an eye on those voices.’

Ahead of their presidential rematch on November 5, Trump campaign officials have publicly and privately insisted that Trump can defeat Biden in Minnesota. While a disruption in the state seems possible, available polls and the state’s political history indicate that the former president faces an uphill battle.

Major independent polls show Biden with a small but consistent lead in Minnesota — typically between 2 and 4 percentage points. A Trump campaign official would not say directly whether they planned to dedicate resources to the state.

While rural areas of Minnesota have moved toward Republicans over the past decade, the suburbs around Minneapolis have moved toward Democrats, reflecting broader national trends.

During the speech, Trump reiterated calls for a “mass deportation” of immigrants into the country illegally, and doubled down on promises to build a new missile defense system, likening it to Israel’s “Iron Dome” program.

He also hinted again that North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum, a former primary rival who introduced Trump on Friday evening, was a top contender to become his vice presidential running mate.

“A lot of people think it’s that guy over there,” Trump said of Burgum. “He’s very good.”

As with other recent speeches, Trump leveled personal and even profane invective against Biden throughout the evening, at one point saying the president was “full of shit.”

During presidential campaigns, it is common for major candidates to insist that they can capture states that appear to have reach. Biden officials say they have a shot at taking Florida, even though he is about 10 points behind it in most polls.